Scheduled Downtime
On Friday 21 April 2023 @ 5pm MT, this website will be down for maintenance and expected to return online the morning of 24 April 2023 at the latest

Perturbed initial conditions climate ensemble

This post was from a previous version of the WRF&MPAS-A Support Forum. New replies have been disabled and if you have follow up questions related to this post, then please start a new thread from the forum home page.

nacosta

New member
Dear MPAS community,

First at all, I would like to congratulate WRF/WRFDA/MPAS development team because its incredible work on the creation and improvement of numerical prediction models and an adequate support community. The correct growth of a strong community is the key of investigation success.

Our researching team is carrying out a perturbed initial conditions climate ensemble forecast using MPAS and CESM (dataset ds316.1). However, we are not sure about whether perturbed initial conditions are enough to create a correct probabilistic forecast. References affirm that initial conditions information could be lost in long term forecasts.

So, is a perturbed initial conditions climate ensemble enough to characterize a probabilistic forecasting?
If not, how could we proceed in the creation of such ensemble?

We look forward to your response.

Thank you very much,
Nast Acosta García,
Harmattan International Atmosphere Researching Group.
 
Perturbed initial conditions should be sufficient to create a probabilistic forecast. The CESM Large Ensemble was created in a similar way. They added noise (at the magnitude of round-off error) to temperature to create their 40-member ensemble I.C., see
http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/projects/community-projects/LENS/

One can also create ensembles using time-lagged I.C. That approach is fairly straight forward and typically produces a useful spread.
 
Top