simulation or forecasting

Any miscellaneous question/problem/comment related to WRF support that does not fit under any of the other category
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Jayanti pal
Posts: 64
Joined: Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:29 am

simulation or forecasting

Post by Jayanti pal » Tue Dec 01, 2020 4:53 am

Let say, I want to run wrf for 72 hour (From 17.05.2020 to 19.05.2020)
For that I have taken 72 hour forecast of 17.05.2020 at 00z (initialize model with 17.05.2020 00 gmt)
When I run the wrf using that above data, is it a simulation or forecasting?

what is the basic difference between simulation and forecasting regarding WRF run?
Please clear this point.
Thank you

kwerner
Posts: 2287
Joined: Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:21 pm

Re: simulation or forecasting

Post by kwerner » Tue Dec 01, 2020 10:39 pm

Hi,
I think people use the words "simulation" and "forecast" interchangeably. Technically a forecast is a prediction of the future, so since your dates have already passed, they wouldn't really be a forecast, and "simulation" would be the more accurate term. However, as I said, I've heard many modelers use the word "forecast" to simply indicate any simulation. I agree it's a bit confusing.
NCAR/MMM

Jayanti pal
Posts: 64
Joined: Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:29 am

Re: simulation or forecasting

Post by Jayanti pal » Wed Dec 02, 2020 4:15 am

Thank you for your reply.
I get some clarification from your reply.
Like if I take data of today (2.12.2020 at 00 Z) and run our model for 72 hour . Then it might be the forecast.
But technically those (simulation and forecast) have no difference.
Right?

kwerner
Posts: 2287
Joined: Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:21 pm

Re: simulation or forecasting

Post by kwerner » Wed Dec 02, 2020 5:17 pm

Yes, that is correct.
NCAR/MMM

tanishajain
Posts: 1
Joined: Fri May 07, 2021 7:12 am

Re: simulation or forecasting

Post by tanishajain » Fri May 07, 2021 7:19 am

Thank you jayanti pal for coming up with this question as I had the same doubt and thankyou kwerner for clearing it giving some clarity to tis confusion between forecast and simulation.

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