Hello, I have run WRF operationally for more than 10 years. I now want to run WRF for seasonal, 3-6 months simulations. I know that at that range, it is not a question of categorical forecasts but rather departures from normal.
For this I need to first generate a WRF climatology against which I can compute anomalies. Previously I could access historical data, 2011 to 2023, from here https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/climate-forecast-system/access/operational-9-month-forecast. Currently this link no longer works. I have to find where to get the historical data. The way i am thinking of doing it is to run WRF for each of the historical Januaries, Februaries, ..., and find total WRF rainfall and mean temperature for each month and for each 3-month season. From this, and outside WRF, I can find the mean rainfall and standard deviation for each month and each 3-month season then I end up with a file with the following file as model history
Jan Feb Mar Apr may Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec JFM FMA MAM ...
Mean ... ...
sd ... ...
Then using data from here Index of /pub/data/nccf/com/cfs/prod/cfs.20241001/00/6hrly_grib_01 as LBCs I can run WRF and compute anomalies for 3 months ahead and for the following 3-month season.
I am wondering if someone has an easier, less cumbersome way of doing this, if they are able to share, before I even start.
For this I need to first generate a WRF climatology against which I can compute anomalies. Previously I could access historical data, 2011 to 2023, from here https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/climate-forecast-system/access/operational-9-month-forecast. Currently this link no longer works. I have to find where to get the historical data. The way i am thinking of doing it is to run WRF for each of the historical Januaries, Februaries, ..., and find total WRF rainfall and mean temperature for each month and for each 3-month season. From this, and outside WRF, I can find the mean rainfall and standard deviation for each month and each 3-month season then I end up with a file with the following file as model history
Jan Feb Mar Apr may Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec JFM FMA MAM ...
Mean ... ...
sd ... ...
Then using data from here Index of /pub/data/nccf/com/cfs/prod/cfs.20241001/00/6hrly_grib_01 as LBCs I can run WRF and compute anomalies for 3 months ahead and for the following 3-month season.
I am wondering if someone has an easier, less cumbersome way of doing this, if they are able to share, before I even start.